Frontier Technology

 “Art is never finished, only abandoned.”

Brian Williamson a long-time observer of the intersection of technology, economics and policy – argues the deeper issue is a precautionary reflex that treats inaction as the safest choice, even as the costs of standing still rise sharply.

Enshrined in EU law as the precautionary principle. In a century of rapid technological change, excess precaution can cause more harm than it prevents. Inaction is rewarded over improvement. nothing about Europe’s present circumstances is stable. Energy systems are being remade, supply chains redrawn and the technological frontier is advancing at a pace unseen since the Industrial Revolution

“Technology frontier” usually refers to the leading edge of technological capability—the most advanced point humanity has reached in a given domain. It’s where new breakthroughs happen and where limits are being pushed or re-defined.

In economics, the technology frontier is the maximum output possible using the best available technology. Countries “on the frontier” are innovation leaders; those behind it are adopters. It is at this point that it becomes more cost-effective for a developing economy to develop its own technologies rather than primarily borrowing from technological leaders.

The market for frontier technologies is predicted to grow significantly, with estimates around $16.4 trillion by 2033. 

Governance of frontier technologies is also a critical concern as these innovations bring both vast opportunities and complex risks, requiring coordinated efforts globally to manage their impact effectively.

Lets consider the historic perspective:

First Industrial Frontier (1750–1900)

Steam power (Watt engine)

Railroads & steamships

Telegraphy (first electronic communication)

Technology became a systematic, research-driven domain.

Second Industrial Frontier (1900–1950)

Internal combustion engines

Aviation (Wright brothers → jet aircraft)

Radio, television

The frontier increasingly involved electrification, mobility, and information flow.

The Digital Frontier (1950–2000)

Transistors → integrated circuits → microprocessors

Space exploration (Sputnik, Apollo)

The internet (ARPANET → WWW)

Technology frontier now centered on computation + networks + molecular biology.

Early 21st Century Frontier (2000–2020)

Cloud computing & mobile internet

Smartphones 

Social networks (Web 2.0)

The frontier became software-first, with AI emerging as a major inflection point.

Current Frontier (2020–2025)

Frontier AI: large-scale multimodal and agentic models

Bioengineering: programmable cells, AI-aided drug discovery

Quantum computing: early fault-tolerance efforts

Energy breakthroughs: fusion research, next-gen batteries

Robotics: dexterous manipulation, general-purpose robots

Neurotechnology: high-bandwidth BCIs

The frontier is now characterized by convergence: AI + biology + energy + robotics.

In your frontier cycle a terrible advise is  “Never quit”: Try lots of things, quit lots of things. Your time is finite. Sometimes you have to give up an old dream for a better one to emerge. so our conclusion will be to maximize output with frontier tech. 

A Prince who is not himself wise cannot be well advised.

The Idea or The Person

“I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free.”............. Michelangelo (Italian painter, sculptor and architect 1475-1564)

There is a difference between loving or being attracted to the concept/idea of something rather than what is true and real. 

Falling in love with the idea of someone means idealizing them—a flexible, imagined version tailored to meet one’s desires and expectations. In contrast, loving the person means accepting them with all their real traits, flaws, and complexities.

The idea of AI

The truth is that AI does not want to think with you, but for you. it is competing with you for the same unit of thought. Their explicit goal is to save you from doing actual cognitive work. whether that’s drafting a letter or drawing a picture. 

Our brains are not static they evolve over time and they can evolve to be less creative. You have to unravel the idea from the truth and rebel for the survival of humanity. Skip the computer and AI for awhile. Brainstorm with a friend, Do some math in your head, Sit in front of a spreadsheet and decipher. Sketch it out on paper, Try something new. Concentrate, exhaust your ideas, consent to being bored.

The way to get people to be creative is to assure them that they are separate from their imaginations.

Eskimo bone-carvers did not try to make a specific shape but to reveal that which was already inside it. Previous cultures perceived artists as “transmitters” rather than “creators.” Their work was not viewed as an embodiment of their mental state, but as a message from the divine. 

Agentic AI uses advanced algorithms and machine learning to perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of people ultimately cutting off social networks. While people with stronger, more diverse social connections and habits show slower biological aging. 

When you stand by the idea:

You’re loyal to principles, values, or truth. This approach prioritizes what’s right over who’s right. It’s especially important when integrity, fairness, or long-term consequences matter more than personal ties.

When you stand by the person:

You’re showing loyalty, empathy, and trust. Sometimes people make mistakes, but their intentions, relationships, or character might make them worth supporting through that. Standing by the person can strengthen bonds and show humanity.

The healthiest stance:

Stand by the idea of AI — its promise to serve humanity — but learn to respect the process of the unconscious mind, especially in creative matters. Sometimes, you cannot chase the answer; you must wait for it to come to you.

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Retirement Trajectory

A citizen, first in war, first in peace and first in the hearts of his country men ............. Henry Lee (1756 - 1818, funeral ovation of General Washington )

French pensioners currently enjoy higher average incomes than working-age citizens due to strong public pension funding, early retirement eligibility, and high replacement rates, but these factors are creating financial pressures on the public system.

This financial advantage for retirees has evolved over decades, with retiree income growing by over 160% between 1970 and 2020, while working-age income double

Maintaining such pension levels is increasingly expensive and a concern. France spends around 14% of its GDP on pension contrasting sharply with places like the U.S. and Australia, where retirees earn significantly less than working adults.

Demographic Trends:

• Aging populations are increasing dependency ratios worldwide, with about 18% of the global population projected to be over 65 by 2030.
• Developed countries like Japan and Germany have dependency ratios exceeding 50%, straining pension systems.
• Emerging markets like India are rapidly expanding national pension systems.
• Average life expectancy has risen globally to around 74.4 years, leading to longer payout periods.
• Retirement ages are rising globally, often approaching or exceeding 67 years in many OECD countries, to ease pension system burdens.

Pension systems are also transitioning from defined benefit (DB) plans, where employers guarantee pensions, to defined contribution (DC) plans, where individuals bear investment risk, especially in the U.S., Italy, and Europe while older workers are adopting technology and flexible work arrangements to extend workforce participation.

Global pension fund asset is estimated at over USD 60 trillion, with key markets holding 91% of these assets. To ensure sustainability and security of retirement income countries have to implement reforms, and enhancing governance. While ageing entrepreneurs must periodically evaluate their succession plan.

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Education and AI Tutors

Ours is the age of substitutes: instead of language, we have jargon; instead of principles, slogans; and, instead of genuine ideas, bright ideas ........ Eric Bentley(American writer, New Republic 1952)

Traditional educational culture doesn’t fail because it’s old and irrelevant. It fails because it’s misunderstood. It’s treated as branding, not behavior. As output, not infrastructure. And when that happens—even the most well-meaning efforts can erode the very trust they’re meant to build.

Rebuilding education around AI tutors is a powerful idea — but whether it should be done depends on how we define the goals of education.

 Why Education Could Be Rebuilt Around AI Tutors

• Personalized Learning at Scale- AI can adapt lessons to each student’s pace, interests, and learning style — something human teachers can't always do. Students who struggle can get more time and support; advanced learners can move ahead.
• 24/7 Accessibility-AI tutors can provide help any time, removing barriers related to time zones, class schedules, or teacher availability.
• Feedback and Assessment - Real-time feedback allows students to learn from mistakes immediately. AI can track progress over time more precisely than many traditional assessments.
• Equity, Cost and Access - In regions with a teacher shortage or underfunded schools, AI tutors could provide a baseline of high-quality instruction. Over time, AI could reduce some costs of delivering education, particularly for repetitive or content-based instruction.

However, we Should Be Cautious

• Learning is social and emotional. Human teachers provide empathy, encouragement, and mentorship — AI can't fully replicate that.
• Group dynamics, collaboration, and discussion are critical parts of education.
• AI systems collect vast amounts of data. Mismanagement or misuse could put students' privacy at risk. AI tutors can perpetuate biases or misinformation if not carefully trained and audited.

On final thought; rather than rebuilding education entirely around AI tutors we must be clear about their limitations and ethical challenges, a more balanced and realistic approach should be a  Human-led, AI-supported Education where Teachers remain central, using AI as a tool to enhance teaching and personalize support. By Offloading grading, diagnostics, and repetitive tutoring to AI, You can free up teachers to focus on deeper instruction.

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Change in Thinking

I am American bred, I have seen much to hate here and much to forgive, But in a world where England is finished and dead, I do not wish to live. ------ Alice Duer Miller (American writer, 1874- 1942)

We’re now closer to 2050 than to 2000. How does that change your thinking about the world?

• Europe can no longer rely on America, it must build mega businesses worthy of staffing the technological talent it produces, particularly in artificial intelligence, deep tech, and defence.
• AI models can create poetry in any style or language, write computer code in any programming language and much more. These models may not be superior to skilled humans, but no single human could outperform top-tier generative models across all fields. The combination of these competencies generates value.
• Big tech is hiring 25% fewer new grads in 2025 than 2024; startups are down 11%. The shift may reflect the growing influence of AI on early-career hiring, or changing employer preferences. Irrespective, AI models are still vulnerable.
• Antarctic sea-ice has collapsed to levels four standard deviations below the average (1991–2020). Statistically, that should happen once every 31,600 years. And yet, it’s happened three times in the past 24 months.
• Asia (e.g., Japan, South Korea, China) face rapid aging and population decline. Others (e.g., India, Southeast Asia) will have large working-age populations—raising the need for jobs and education. Migration and urban growth will continue to reshape cities.
• Africa’s population is projected to double to 2.5 billion by 2050.Rapid urbanization could overwhelm infrastructure, housing, sanitation, and transportation systems. Youth unemployment will be a central issue—with over 60% under age 25.

 Africa will shape demographic and economic growth. Asia will drive technological and geopolitical outcomes. Investments in people, peace, and the planet—especially education, governance, green energy, and cooperation—are crucial to ensure these challenges don't become crises.

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Oceans Economy

The waters were his winding sheet, the sea was made his tomb; yet for his fame the ocean sea was not sufficient room ...........Richard Barnfield (English poet, The Encomion of lady Pecunia,1598)

Fish say we have the stream and the pond,  But what is beyond?

Protecting ocean health equals growing economic health. A healthy ocean isn’t just about ecology—it’s an economic powerhouse. 

Smart investment in marine conservation and sustainability:

• Pays for itself (returns from 4× up to 10×)
• Supports billions of livelihoods
• Shields communities from climate threats
• Boosts fisheries and tourism sectors
• Opens financial innovation and green job opportunities

1. Huge financial returns on investment. Investing in sustainable ocean solutions—like restoring mangroves, expanding offshore wind, decarbonizing shipping, and scaling blue protein—yields a 4 to 6× return, with some estimates even reaching $10 return per $1 spent. A World Bank–commissioned study notes that every $1 in marine protected areas (MPAs) and eco-tourism returns $6 .

2. billion people rely on marine resources; fisheries/aquaculture employ ~62 million directly, and another 600 million are indirectly dependent. Coastal and marine tourism pulls in hundreds of billions annually—coral reefs alone add ~$36 billion/year and support millions of jobs 

3. Natural protection, climate resilience & carbon storage. Coastal habitats such as mangroves and seagrass absorb more carbon than forests and provide vital coastal defense against storms and erosion. Coral reefs alone reduce wave energy by ~97%, shielding ports and shorelines—and without them, flood damage could nearly double 

Financing ocean health through innovation Blue bonds—like those from Seychelles, Belize and Palau—have funded MPAs, fisheries upgrades, and coastal resilience. 

Emerging instruments, including coral reef bonds and the Ocean Risk and Action Alliance, seek to mobilize billions more.

The ocean economy contributes over $2.5 trillion to global GDP annually and supports nearly 350 million jobs worldwide.

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Space Inspired

Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breath free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore, send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me: I lift my lamp beside the golden door .... Emma Lazarus, American poet (Inscription on the statue of liberty, New York 1883)

First order thinking is a way of analyzing problems or decisions by focusing on the immediate, direct consequences or effects of an action.

• It looks at the immediate, obvious result of a choice or event.
• It’s often simple and straightforward.
• It doesn’t consider the longer-term or indirect effects.

What is Second Order Thinking?

• It’s about thinking beyond the immediate consequences.
• You consider the longer-term, indirect, or ripple effects of a decision or action.
• It requires anticipating what happens next, and what follows after that.
• It’s often more complex and strategic

Second order thinking applied on space exploration is beginning to power the future of commerce. From fleet efficiency to climate resilience, space-based systems are helping companies move goods, manage risks and unlock new opportunities.

Space exploration has driven tons of tech innovations that have also transformed everyday life on Earth. 

Some cool space-inspired technologies:

1. Solar Panels

Originally developed to power satellites and spacecraft, solar panel technology has improved efficiency and durability because of the harsh space environment. Now, they’re everywhere on Earth, from rooftops to calculators.

2. Memory Foam

Developed by NASA in the 1970s to improve cushioning in spacecraft seats, memory foam is now widely used in mattresses, pillows, and sports gear.

3. Water Purification Systems

NASA needed reliable ways to recycle water on the International Space Station. This tech has been adapted for clean water solutions on Earth, including portable water filters and purification systems in disaster zones.

4. Cordless Power Tools

To help astronauts work on the moon, NASA helped develop cordless tools with rechargeable batteries. This innovation directly influenced the design of modern cordless drills and other battery-powered tools.

5. Insulation Materials (e.g., Aerogel)

Aerogels and other lightweight, high-performance insulation materials were refined for spacecraft. These materials are now used in building insulation, clothing, and even sporting equipment.

6. Freeze-Dried Food

To feed astronauts on long missions, NASA developed freeze-dried food that retains nutrients and lasts long. This technology is common now in camping and emergency food supplies.

7. Satellite Communication

Satellite technology has revolutionized global communication, GPS navigation, weather forecasting, and television broadcasting.

8. Scratch-Resistant Lenses

NASA created coatings for astronauts’ helmet visors that resist scratches and glare. These coatings are now used in eyeglasses, sunglasses, and camera lenses.

9. Fire-Resistant Materials

Materials designed to protect spacecraft and astronauts from fire have found uses in firefighting gear and fireproof clothing.

10. Infrared Ear Thermometers

Infrared sensors, originally developed for monitoring the temperature of stars and planets, were adapted to quickly and non-invasively measure body temperature through the ear.

First order thinking can sometimes lead to short-sighted decisions. Second order thinking helps you avoid unintended consequences and make better long-term choices. It’s useful in investing, business, relationships, and pretty much any complex decision-making.

Apply second order to your TAM

What is TAM?

Total Addressable Market is the total revenue opportunity available for a product or service if it captured 100% market share.

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