Radical Uncertainty

Progress is not made by the cynics and the doubters, it is made by those who 

believe everything is possible----(Carly Florina, speech, Las Vegas, 18 November 2002)

“Therefore, we call on all AI labs to immediately pause 

for at least six months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4,”

implores the open letter from the Future of Life Institute signed by 

Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and Yuval Noah Harari², and others

Radical uncertainty is a concept that refers to the idea that the future is 

fundamentally unpredictable and that our knowledge of the world is always 

incomplete. This concept challenges traditional approaches to decision-making 

that assume that the future is knowable and that risks can be measured and managed.

Skills as a currency is a concept rooted in the idea that skills have intrinsic

value and can be exchanged in the future economy. In other words, skills will 

depend on both what's in a person's mind and what they have trained the machine to do.

One way to develop a concept around radical uncertainty is to explore the 

implications of this idea for different areas of life, such as business, 

politics, and personal decision-making. For example, in the context of business, 

the concept of radical uncertainty suggests that managers should be more humble 

and cautious in their decision-making, recognizing that they cannot predict the 

future with certainty. Instead, they should be more willing to experiment and 

adapt their strategies as new information becomes available.

In the political sphere, the concept of radical uncertainty highlights the 

limitations of traditional economic models that assume rational actors with 

complete information. Instead, policymakers should recognize the inherent 

unpredictability of the world and be more open to diverse perspectives and 

feedback from the public.

At a personal level, radical uncertainty challenges individuals to embrace 

uncertainty and be more comfortable with ambiguity. This means being willing 

to take risks and make decisions in the face of incomplete information, and 

being open to learning from failures and mistakes.

Overall, the concept of radical uncertainty provides a framework for thinking 

about the limitations of our knowledge and the unpredictability of the future. 

By embracing uncertainty and being more flexible in our thinking and decision-making, 

we can better adapt to the changing world around us.