A Genius and A Fool

Those who know how to win are much more numerous than those who know how to make proper use of their victories ------- (Polybius, Greek historian, c.200-c.118 BC)

The dichotomy between a genius and a fool is a fascinating one. A genius is often characterized by exceptional intellectual or creative ability, possessing insight or skills that are far beyond the norm. In contrast, a fool is typically seen as someone lacking in wisdom or common sense, often making decisions or behaving in ways that seem irrational or naive.

However, this contrast isn’t always so clear-cut. Sometimes, what appears as foolishness can be a sign of unconventional thinking that leads to groundbreaking ideas. Similarly, what seems like genius can sometimes be based on eccentric or unorthodox views that others might initially perceive as foolish.

We want our technological infrastructure to mimic nature in the way things fail. That will give us deep complexity rather than just surface complexity, and resilience rather than brittleness.

Elon Musk’s most significant businesses have started with a mission, not a business. Rather than finding a gap in the market to exploit or a tempting arbitrage opportunity, the process begins with him discovering what he considers a species-scale problem.

Musk created SpaceX after realizing that at some point in the future, Earth would die, and humanity would perish with it if it had not populated other planets. His solution was a commercial rocket company capable of delivering humans to Mars.

Just like Musk, China’s innovation ecosystem uniquely combines top-down government–industry coordination with the bottom-up drive of Chinese entrepreneurs. Startups that align with government-picked growth industries of the future can prosper through favorable policies, regulations, and centralized investment in scientific research.

A “whole-of-nation” approach to innovation marshals almost unlimited state resources. From 1995 to 2021, China’s total R&D outlay soared from $18.2 billion to $620.1 billion — a 3,299% increase compared to America’s 277%, according to the Netherlands’ Rathenau Institute. 

China has become a leading global hub for advanced scientific research. According to The Economist, Chinese scientists now lead the world in producing high-impact papers and contributing to famous scientific publications selected after rigorous peer review.

No segment better illustrates China’s technological prowess than clean tech. China now accounts for over 80% of global production capacity in 11 essential technologies, including solar wafers and lithium-ion battery components Just as Chinese companies once benefited from decades of Western investments in traditional industries like autos and chemicals, U.S. and European companies should now cash in on China’s colossal expenditures on clean tech.

China excels at tailoring affordable, innovative solutions to local needs. For instance, Chinese smartphone companies, led by Transsion Holdings, Xiaomi, and Huawei, captured 76% of the smartphone market in India and more than 60% of the African market by 2021. Similarly, Chinese EV manufacturers dominate Latin America, holding an impressive 86% market share. 

China’s markets — often described as a “Gladiators Arena” — often emerge as global champions. Think of CATL (batteries), BYD (batteries and electric vehicles), Tongwei (solar), Goldwind (wind), or Huawei (information and communications technology).

See You at the Top