Progress is not made by the cynics and the doubters, it is made by those who
believe everything is possible----(Carly Florina, speech, Las Vegas, 18 November 2002)
“Therefore, we call on all AI labs to immediately pause
for at least six months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4,”
implores the open letter from the Future of Life Institute signed by
Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and Yuval Noah Harari², and others
Radical uncertainty is a concept that refers to the idea that the future is
fundamentally unpredictable and that our knowledge of the world is always
incomplete. This concept challenges traditional approaches to decision-making
that assume that the future is knowable and that risks can be measured and managed.
Skills as a currency is a concept rooted in the idea that skills have intrinsic
value and can be exchanged in the future economy. In other words, skills will
depend on both what's in a person's mind and what they have trained the machine to do.
One way to develop a concept around radical uncertainty is to explore the
implications of this idea for different areas of life, such as business,
politics, and personal decision-making. For example, in the context of business,
the concept of radical uncertainty suggests that managers should be more humble
and cautious in their decision-making, recognizing that they cannot predict the
future with certainty. Instead, they should be more willing to experiment and
adapt their strategies as new information becomes available.
In the political sphere, the concept of radical uncertainty highlights the
limitations of traditional economic models that assume rational actors with
complete information. Instead, policymakers should recognize the inherent
unpredictability of the world and be more open to diverse perspectives and
feedback from the public.
At a personal level, radical uncertainty challenges individuals to embrace
uncertainty and be more comfortable with ambiguity. This means being willing
to take risks and make decisions in the face of incomplete information, and
being open to learning from failures and mistakes.
Overall, the concept of radical uncertainty provides a framework for thinking
about the limitations of our knowledge and the unpredictability of the future.
By embracing uncertainty and being more flexible in our thinking and decision-making,
we can better adapt to the changing world around us.
