Space Inspired

Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breath free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore, send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me: I lift my lamp beside the golden door .... Emma Lazarus, American poet (Inscription on the statue of liberty, New York 1883)

First order thinking is a way of analyzing problems or decisions by focusing on the immediate, direct consequences or effects of an action.

• It looks at the immediate, obvious result of a choice or event.
• It’s often simple and straightforward.
• It doesn’t consider the longer-term or indirect effects.

What is Second Order Thinking?

• It’s about thinking beyond the immediate consequences.
• You consider the longer-term, indirect, or ripple effects of a decision or action.
• It requires anticipating what happens next, and what follows after that.
• It’s often more complex and strategic

Second order thinking applied on space exploration is beginning to power the future of commerce. From fleet efficiency to climate resilience, space-based systems are helping companies move goods, manage risks and unlock new opportunities.

Space exploration has driven tons of tech innovations that have also transformed everyday life on Earth. 

Some cool space-inspired technologies:

1. Solar Panels

Originally developed to power satellites and spacecraft, solar panel technology has improved efficiency and durability because of the harsh space environment. Now, they’re everywhere on Earth, from rooftops to calculators.

2. Memory Foam

Developed by NASA in the 1970s to improve cushioning in spacecraft seats, memory foam is now widely used in mattresses, pillows, and sports gear.

3. Water Purification Systems

NASA needed reliable ways to recycle water on the International Space Station. This tech has been adapted for clean water solutions on Earth, including portable water filters and purification systems in disaster zones.

4. Cordless Power Tools

To help astronauts work on the moon, NASA helped develop cordless tools with rechargeable batteries. This innovation directly influenced the design of modern cordless drills and other battery-powered tools.

5. Insulation Materials (e.g., Aerogel)

Aerogels and other lightweight, high-performance insulation materials were refined for spacecraft. These materials are now used in building insulation, clothing, and even sporting equipment.

6. Freeze-Dried Food

To feed astronauts on long missions, NASA developed freeze-dried food that retains nutrients and lasts long. This technology is common now in camping and emergency food supplies.

7. Satellite Communication

Satellite technology has revolutionized global communication, GPS navigation, weather forecasting, and television broadcasting.

8. Scratch-Resistant Lenses

NASA created coatings for astronauts’ helmet visors that resist scratches and glare. These coatings are now used in eyeglasses, sunglasses, and camera lenses.

9. Fire-Resistant Materials

Materials designed to protect spacecraft and astronauts from fire have found uses in firefighting gear and fireproof clothing.

10. Infrared Ear Thermometers

Infrared sensors, originally developed for monitoring the temperature of stars and planets, were adapted to quickly and non-invasively measure body temperature through the ear.

First order thinking can sometimes lead to short-sighted decisions. Second order thinking helps you avoid unintended consequences and make better long-term choices. It’s useful in investing, business, relationships, and pretty much any complex decision-making.

Apply second order to your TAM

What is TAM?

Total Addressable Market is the total revenue opportunity available for a product or service if it captured 100% market share.

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Liquid Democracy

All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs ........... Joseph chamberlain 1977

Liquid democracy is a system of voting that combines direct and representative democracy. The idea is that everyone has a vote and can assign it to anyone they choose.

Individuals can vote on issues directly, but they also have the option to delegate their vote to someone they trust—essentially creating a fluid, flexible delegation of voting power. This delegation can be revoked at any time, which is where the "liquid" aspect comes in.

A representative collects the proxies assigned to him or her and can either vote directly on the issues or assign all the proxies to someone else. Perhaps proxies could be divided: this person for economic matters, another for health matters, a third for national defense, and so on. There would be no more election days: vote counts might change every day.

Key Features:

Direct Voting: People can vote on issues themselves, just like in a traditional direct democracy.

Delegation: Instead of voting directly, a person can delegate their vote to someone else—say, a representative or an expert—whom they believe is more knowledgeable or better equipped to make the decision. This delegation can be on a per-issue basis.

Revocability: A person can change their delegation or vote at any time. If they feel their delegate is no longer representing their interests, they can reassign their vote.

Flexibility: It’s more fluid and adaptable than traditional representative democracy because delegation can change based on the issue at hand.

It’s seen as a way to empower individuals by allowing them to choose when and to whom they want to delegate their vote, offering more control over the decision-making process than in traditional systems.

Some platforms and experiments have tried to implement liquid democracy in online decision-making, such as in open-source communities or even political systems like in the case of some political parties. It’s still mostly theoretical or in experimental phases, though, in terms of large-scale implementation.

Liquid democracy, despite its appeal, faces several challenges that hinder its widespread adoption and implementation, especially on a large scale. Here are some of the key challenges:

1. Delegation Inequality

Problem: In practice, people may delegate their votes to individuals or groups they trust, but this could end up creating a concentration of power in the hands of a few individuals who are considered "experts" or leaders.

Impact: This defeats the purpose of liquid democracy, as it could potentially lead to a system where the decisions of a small elite group dominate, rather than being genuinely fluid and decentralized.

2. Voter Apathy and Delegation Fatigue

Problem: Many people might not be deeply engaged in the political process or the issues at hand, leading them to delegate their votes to others, perhaps without fully understanding or tracking who they are delegating to.

Impact: This could lead to apathy and over-reliance on a small number of people, potentially resulting in unbalanced representation and the consolidation of power in the hands of a few.

3. Security and Manipulation Risks

Problem: Since liquid democracy often relies on digital platforms for vote delegation and tracking, it could be vulnerable to cyberattacks, vote manipulation, or other forms of tampering.

Impact: Security is a critical concern, as manipulation of the voting process or the delegation system could undermine the legitimacy of decisions and elections.

Potential Approaches to Challenges:

Transparency and Accountability: Clear tracking of delegate voting history and public profiles could help reduce the risk of abuse and improve accountability.

Deliberative Processes: Incorporating deliberation and public discourse into decision-making might counteract some of the apathy and complexity issues, giving people more of an understanding of the issues they’re voting on.

Education and Outreach: Providing better education about the system and encouraging informed participation could help mitigate the risks of delegation fatigue and apathy.

Security Innovations: Implementing advanced encryption and blockchain technology could help ensure the integrity and security of votes, reducing the risk of manipulation.

While liquid democracy has intriguing potential, it’s clear that it will require overcoming significant challenges before it can be implemented in a way that’s both equitable and practical, especially in large-scale, diverse societies.

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The Economy of the Unborn

The critics say you can't run government like a business. I respond, well we can't run government like a government anymore ------ Ralph Klein (Canadian Progressive Conservative Politician, 1994)

As life expectancy rises and populations age, we will need to rethink retirement and empower people to live longer, healthier lives in financial security. By 2050, the number of people aged over 60 is expected to more than double to 2.1 billion, which will have implications for the workforce and financial and care systems globally.

If you look at fertility, there are a few social trends that are the proximate causes of its decline. That includes norms around longer schooling, more parental attention paid to kids, less grandparent involvement in parenting, low religiosity, higher vanity, and moving from “cornerstone” in the past to today’s “capstone” late marriages.

Fertility and productivity are interconnected in several ways, particularly as they relate to demographic trends, workforce availability, and economic outcomes. While it may not seem like an obvious connection, changes in fertility rates can have a significant impact on businesses, labor markets, and overall economic productivity.

Some countries with declining fertility rates, like Japan or Italy, have turned to immigration as a way to boost the workforce. Immigrants, especially those of working age, help to replenish the labor pool, ensuring that businesses continue to have access to a sufficient and diverse talent pool. Immigration can help mitigate some of the adverse effects of declining fertility by increasing the working-age population and sustaining overall business productivity.

Declining Fertility Rates: In many developed countries, fertility rates are declining. When fertility rates fall below the replacement level (around 2.1 children per woman), the population ages, and the proportion of working-age people decreases. This leads to a shrinking labor force, which can result in labor shortages in various industries. As fewer young people enter the workforce, businesses may face difficulties in hiring and retaining talent. With fewer workers available, businesses may need to increase wages to attract employees, but this can raise operational costs and decrease profitability.

Aging Population: As fertility rates drop, the population tends to age, meaning there are more elderly individuals relying on pensions and healthcare systems, and fewer younger people to support them. This shift can create a growing burden on businesses to fund pensions, healthcare benefits, and other welfare systems. Moreover, an aging workforce may face challenges in maintaining high levels of productivity, as older workers may experience health issues or may be less adaptable to new technologies and methods.

Younger Population and Innovation: Younger workers tend to be more innovative, technologically savvy, and flexible in adapting to new business environments. In countries with lower fertility rates, businesses may have fewer younger individuals entering the workforce, which could slow down innovation and the adoption of new technologies. This could have a longer-term impact on overall productivity as industries face difficulties in staying competitive.

The economy of the Born is powered by human attention, human desires, human biases, human labor, human attitudes, human consumption. The economy of the unborn, a synthetic economy, is powered by artificial minds, machine attention, synthetic labor, virtual needs and manufactured desires. [...] We are not replacing existing humans with bots, nor are we replacing unborn humans with bots. Rather we are replacing never-to-be-born humans with bots, and the relationship that we have with those synthetic agents. 

The economy of the unborn will be powered by bots.

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The Idol and the Victim

The young bride was the idol, the amusement, the victim of the evening

.......Alessandro Manzoni (Italian novelist, the betrothed......1785-1873)

 

Principles are immutable until they are not; rivals are friends until they are not.

Humans make mistakes all the time. All of us do, every day, in tasks both new and routine. 

Some of our mistakes are minor and some are catastrophic. Mistakes can break trust and 

confidence of our peers but you don't have to stop trying.

Every type of thinking is best done in teams, not as individuals. There is no thinking that isn’t made 

more thorough, more accurate, and more innovative by the presence of other minds, offering 

different perspectives and together, asking even better questions.

A US startup aptly named Boom has become the first independently developed jet 

(with no government backing) to break the sound barrier. They aim to offer supersonic 

passenger flights by 2029

The Overture, which is Boom's full-scale commercial jet, is designed to carry passengers 

at speeds of up to Mach 2.2, with a goal of connecting cities like New York to London 

in just 3.5 hours, compared to the usual 7-8 hours. The Overture is also designed with 

sustainability in mind, with a plan to use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to minimize 

its environmental impact.

Boom Supersonic has placed a strong emphasis on sustainability in the development of its 

supersonic jets, particularly with the Overture aircraft. Some of their key sustainability 

efforts include:

1. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF):

Boom is committed to using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) for the Overture jet. SAF is made 

from renewable resources such as plant oils or waste products and can significantly reduce 

the carbon emissions of aviation compared to traditional jet fuel. The company has even 

partnered with several SAF producers to ensure that the fuel can be used at scale for supersonic flight.

2. Design for Efficiency:

The design of the Overture has been optimized for efficiency to reduce fuel consumption. With a more 

streamlined, aerodynamic shape and lighter materials, the aircraft will consume less fuel while 

maintaining high speeds. This will also help reduce the overall carbon footprint per passenger.

3. Noise Reduction:

One of the environmental concerns with supersonic flight has traditionally been sonic booms, the loud 

noise produced when an aircraft exceeds the speed of sound. Boom is working on reducing the intensity of the sonic boom through a combination of design and engineering. They aim to create a "sonic boom" 

friendly aircraft that could eventually be used over land without disrupting communities, thus minimizing noise pollution.

Failure shields the best opportunities from competitors, but success reveals opportunity.

The global landscape of today is less predictable and more chaotic. But it doesn’t have to 

be less collaborative.

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Spread your Wings

 "I know very well that the stability pact is stupid like all decisions that are rigid" ........Romano Prodi (Italian statesman, president of the European Commission,1999)

I hope you consume much higher quality information, and I hope you create greater distance between the social opinions and gain greater proximity to your own. 

Youth is a privilege, use it to experiment, to test the boundaries of the world, to make mistakes while Europe is boxed into excessive regulations and struggling to match the energy behind the US and Chinas economy, you should spread your wings. 

Elons Musk’s $432 billion makes up approximately 1.5% of US GDP, with time on his side he could accumulate $1trillion, just like the oil magnate John D. Rockefeller with 2.3% of America’s GDP at $900 million in 1913. 

The world’s largest tech companies have substantial free cash reserves:  Apple ($109 billion), Microsoft ($74 billion), Alphabet ($64 billion), Meta ($44 billion), Amazon ($32B) and Nvidia ($27 billion). As a result, these companies will ramp up their acquisition activities in AI, data, hardware, and energy. They all hope to face less pushback from the Federal Trade Commission.

DeepSeek at a Glance

Cost breakthrough: DeepSeek’s R-1 rivals OpenAI’s o1 in performance (not o3) at 10% the cost, enabling affordable, high-quality AI.

Open-source edge: Freely available, runs on modest hardware, sparking rapid developer adoption and open-source innovation.

Industry disruption: Big Tech (OpenAI, Google, Meta) and Nvidia’s GPU business face pressure as low-cost models challenge closed, expensive systems. Could have made a fortune from shorting NVidia's stock.

China looked at the U.S. and saw the overbearing importance of the finance industry at the expense of the real economy. Many of the top US graduates ended up in the increasingly parasitic finance industry instead of working on projects that move society forward. 

Simply put you want your best minds building real value, not just extracting it.

For Technology, The US is ahead however, China has the momentum with a more focused research brain power on Tech as opposed to wall street and just like the GDP, China still has some mileage to overcome.

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